Derby Rankings - An Exercise in Futility

[#1]

If the previous week has taught us anything, it’s that attempting to rank the prospects for the 2010 Kentucky Derby is a largely futile act that is rife with subjection, beset by imperfections, and of course a lightning rod for controversy.  Headed into the weekend, most folks (including yours truly) had Buddy’s Saint ranked in the top 3 on their Derby watch lists.  All that changed on Saturday following a hellacious trip in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.

So where do we stand now?  Well, there is no definitively correct answer.  What follows is most certainly not an attempt to predict who may eventually outmaneuver each other in jockeying for a starting spot in the Derby, nor a reflection on the actual overall talent of the horses in question.  Doubtless, this list will continue to move wildly all over the place from week to week, with venerable favorites dropping like 10,000 pound rocks, and virtual unknowns rising to the top like some UFO shaped balloon purportedly piloted by young Falcon Heene.

In other words, it’s just my humble opinion – and only serves as a snapshot of this moment in time.  Indeed, my opinion on some of these runners changes from moment to moment. I’m willing to bet a good number of these horses don’t even get to so much as sniff the Kentucky air the first Saturday in May.  Probably the only authors out there who can pull off the “Derby watch list trick” with any real acumen are Steve Haskin and his “Derby Dozen” over on Bloodhorse, and Ron Correll over at TrackSideView.  With that said, let’s get on with the show, shall we?

1. ESKENDEREYA

Todd Pletcher’s runner moves into poll position for the moment based off his strong effort in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on 2/20.  Personally, I still have plenty of concerns about his more forwardly placed running style, as well as the way the Fountain of Youth essentially fell into his lap with the way Buddy’s Saint was handled, but there’s no denying that was a very good effort over the likes of such highly touted competitors as the aforementioned favorite (Buddy’s Saint), Aikenite, Pulsion, and Jackson Bend.  I’m not sure if any of the other runners in that field have legitimate shots at becoming Derby contenders, but this son of Giant’s Causeway did what he needed to do to move forward off of his Allowance level victory last out.   Whenever a horse shows improvement like that at a lower level, and then comes back and proves they can run to that same level against better – it tells me he’s a serious race horse.  I cannot see myself keeping this guy on top of this list for long as there’s now way I’d bet him if the Derby were tomorrow, but for now I’ll give him a tepid nod for the top spot.  Admittedly, I’m probably drinking the “what have you done for me lately” kool-aid here.

2. ODYSSEUS

You may have missed him if you blinked this past week.  That’s largely because he wasn’t running in the more highly heralded major prep races on Saturday.  Nope, instead, pulling his own Boise St. routine, Odysseus romped on a Wednesday afternoon over Allowance runners at Tampa Bay.  I know – that’s not exactly a hotbed for sudden Derby sensations to come stomping out of, but there’s something special about this guy.  He’s bred magnificently, and I love the way he dispatched winners the first time out so confidently.  If you remember what Curlin first looked like to you watching the replay of the Rebel in 2007, or the way Big Brown looked in his 2008 debut, I think there may be a little bit of that going on here.  We’ll obviously learn a lot more about this colt next out as he’s going to have to pick up some graded stakes earnings.  Is he a contender or a pretender?  For now, I’m sticking with contender and jumping squarely on the bandwagon.  I’ll say this for certain:  The entire 2010 Triple Crown season will be infinitely more “epic” if a horse named Odysseus is around.

3. DISCREETLY MINE

Another prep race, another Todd Pletcher trained winner.  The son of Mineshaft had never been over a mile before, but proved on Saturday in the G2 Risen Star that he could handle 8.5 furlongs with relative ease.  He’s another in Pletcher’s barn that has found himself setting the pace recently, and the world waits with bated breath to ensure these horses can eventually show signs of being able to win from coming off the pace.  I think of this horse as an x-factor, as folks seem to either be enormously high on him, or enormously critical.  I’m ranking him this high because I thought he was up against it taking on Drosselmeyer, Tempted to Tapit, and Ron the Greek – 3 horses that were being highly touted by folks whispering about possible Derby contenders.  None of them had anything for Discreetly Mine, who was never in doubt for a single step of the way.  Now, does he want to go 10 furlongs?  I’m not sure.  Pletcher probably considers Eskendereya and Rule his 1, 2 punches at the moment, but Discreetly Mine isn’t a bad plan-C to have around.

4.  RULE

Man, are we ever going to get away from Todd Pletcher’s runner?   This is absolute insanity.  Three of the top Four spots?  I think the most obvious observation is that these can’t possibly remain the way they are for long.  Rule  ran away with the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay earlier in the month.  Pletcher immediately commented that a Grade 1 race would be next (take your guess at which though).  Either way, he’s likely to run into tougher competition, including perhaps a stablemate or two.  I’m still not entirely sold that this is a top notch Derby horse, but based on his performance in the Sam F. Davis, he deserves to be ranked highly for now.

5.  LOOKIN AT LUCKY

I’d rank him a lot higher if I had any idea how he’d perform on dirt.  I know he’s impressive, and I know he’s very highly regarded, especially by our friends on the west coast that have had a chance to see him in person, but I can’t help but remember that  he lost in his own backyard to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Baffert has mentioned he thinks Lucky will do well on dirt, and we must remember that several horses (I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, etc.) showed marked improvement coming east and taking the synthetic-to-dirt approach last year.   Another thing working in Lucky’s favor – this could be the year that the California 3-year-old crop is markedly better than its east coast rival.  In years past I’ve been a bit too high on the CA crop – maybe this year is the one not to be too critical?  I still want to see one dirt performance before making a final decision.

6.  VALE OF YORK

Arguably the hardest horse to keep on this list, despite the fact that he’s the reigning 2-year-old champion of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He’s been in Dubai and is now headed to Europe and may not even make it to the Derby, but his exploits as a 2-year-old suggest he deserves to at least be a part of the discussion at the Derby table.  You’re going to have to keep your eye on him if you are following along, as you aren’t likely to hear a whole lot about him.  In fact, I’m almost certain that within a month it will be impossible to continue to rank him here, but until someone else impresses me equally, he’s here.  Being totally transparent, I will say that cashing a win bet at greater than 30/1 on Breeders’ Cup weekend on Vale of York definitely earned a soft spot in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.

7.  CARACORTADO

How can you not love a horse that is named for Al Pacino’s infamous Tony Montana character in the film Scarface?  ”Say hello to my lil’ friend!”  I’ve yet to see this guy race live, but many feel he’s going to give Lucky more than a handful if they both stay in California and take the Santa Anita Derby path to Churchill Downs.  A son of Cat Dreams, all he does is win over the synthetics.  He made short work of two highly touted Derby hopefuls in American Lion and Tiz Chrome (neither of whom looked particularly impressive) in the Robert Lewis.

8. JACKSON BEND

Stays on this list despite being dropped from many such lists across the country.  I just couldn’t knock the guy following 2 game efforts for place in the G3 Holy Bull (behind the now-injured Winslow Homer) and the G2 Fountain of Youth (behind current top dog Eskendereya).  So much for the knock that he was just a slightly above average Calder horse, or so it would appear.  The son of Hear no Evil rides for the Nick Zito barn, and has been either first or second in all 8 lifetime races.  We can say one thing with certainty: he has a knack for factoring into the exacta.

9. SIDNEY’S CANDY

Most folks remember 2009 as a solid season for the offspring of Candy Ride, most notably with Kentucky Derby hopeful Chocolate Candy.  Sidney’s Candy is yet another of the impressive looking Candy Ride line, and this one comes with a ton more speed than Chocolate Candy ever had.  I’ll be honest – this is an aggressive ranking – and a spot I seriously considered sticking instead with either Buddy's Saint or Ron the Greek.   What has me sold on Sidney is potential.  He dropped jaws with his win in the San Vicente, and according to Ron Correll at Tracksideview, may be headed to the Gotham stakes next.  Could be any kind of horse.

10. BLIND LUCK

Just a few years ago, people would’ve scoffed at the notion of including a filly in a top 10 list for the Kentucky Derby.  Thanks to the recent exploits of fillies like Eight Belles, Rags to Riches, and of course Rachel Alexandra, such critics have been largely silenced.  Let’s be frank here (“stop calling me Shirley!!!”), in all likelihood she’s going to stay against 3-year-old fillies and will not face a colt the entire season.  At this point in time there’s absolutely no reason to suspect that her connections will even contemplate a run against 19 colts in the Kentucky Derby, and I can’t say I blame them for those sentiments.  I’ll admit that I’m holding out hope that she “pulls a Rachel” and winds up in Baltimore for the Preakness, but even that is probably wishful thinking at best.  I will say this – the colts rank higher than her on this list do not scare me enough to think she doesn’t still belong in the discussion.  Based on talent alone, if news were to drop tomorrow that her connections were thinking of the Derby, she’d move up several places on this list and become a serious contender.   Before you laugh, just remember that I said the same thing at this point in time last year about Rachel Alexandra, and the same thing in 2008 about Eight Belles and Pure Clan.

OTHER NOTABLES

Obviously you can’t rank everyone on your list.  I still think RON THE GREEK is a horse to keep an eye on.  He didn’t get much pace to run at  in the Risen Star and that probably cost him.  I’m also pretty high on DUBLIN (who gave a solid account of himself in the Southwest) and DAVE IN DIXIE, who is another that appears could be any kind of horse and is one to keep an eye on.  I’m going to make BUDDY”S SAINT and horses like SUPER SAVER show me something before they are brought back into the discussion.

Supremely disappointing this week?  DROSSELMEYER – where the heck was he in the Risen Star?  He seemed to be a consensus top 10 horse wherever you looked.  Huge disappointment.  I’m giving BUDDY”S SAINT some mercy here but not delving deeper into his debacle, but suffice to say that the whole trip was a nightmare.

So that’s where I stand for the moment.  What about you guys?

[#2]

Talk about a list that is about the "what have you done for me in the last week?" :-P

Though i guess this list WILL be different after this weekend's Sham.

(Either Kettle River or Nextdoorneighbor will crack this top 10)

[#3]

No doubt, brosephus.  I know full well it will change with each passing moment.  It's changed about 12 times already today (with various other combinations being disseminated amongst friends and colleagues). 

And if horses like Drosselmeyer were in my original top 10, certainly there's a spot for your horses! :-)