March Thoroughbred Madness

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Living on the east coast, the impending weekend is probable cause for outright celebration.  For the first time since any of us can remember (seeming to harken back to mystic days of yore that only the oldest of old timers here can recall with any lucid vividity), the weekend forecast is not rife with winter storm warnings, blizzard predictions, or record snowfall accumulation already on the ground.  At long last, my friends, the great winds of Spring change have begun to blow!

Ah, yes – the Ides of March will soon be upon us in less than two weeks time.  That wild, unpredictable, whirlwind time of year where Caesars are felled and aspiring young horses get that extra tap of the whip to let them know “get going, buddy, it’s showtime.”

True to form, it appears that March may be entering like a lion for our friends near the California racetracks.  For them I can only offer the solace that comes with knowing that the arrival of Spring heralds the approaching bloom of everything from majestic Oaks to Apple Blossoms.  Yes, good people – there is reason to rejoice!

For those 3-year-olds still hoping to secure enough earnings to cement a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, however,  it’s starting to become desperation time.  Little room for error is afforded the contestants.  One false move, one bad race – and the whole dream can be over before it ever really began.

Two primary opportunities are available to such hopefuls this weekend, with the Gotham at Aqueduct and the rescheduled Sham at Santa Anita (Grade 3’s both..with the rescheduled Sham perhaps in danger of being rescheduled yet again.  More on that in a moment).

That’s right – this weekend New York, at least, will get to stamp it’s place on the Derby trail.  One can almost hear Jay-Z and Alicia Keys being queued up in the background, in perhaps the most overplayed refrain of the year:

“Let’s hear it for New York!  These streets will make you feel brand new.  Big lights will inspire you…”

(Hey, that’s still better than R. Kelly’s insufferable “Gotham City”)

I wonder if that Jay-Z tune is playing on any of the horse’s iPods as they train in the morning and prepare for the big race ahead?

The Gotham (Grade 3) – Aqueduct – 1 1/16 miles (5:12 ET)

Tepid morning line favoritism has been bestowed upon trainer Jeremy Noseda’s entry AWESOME ACT, who will pick up the services of jockey Julien Leparoux.   The son of Awesome Again will be making his dirt debut, which might be reason to give some bettors pause before accepting low odds.  We know he can win on turf, and he certainly closed well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when bested by Pounced, Bridgetown, and Interactif.  What worries me is that there’s not a lot of workout information to suggest he will prefer the dirt, and the other angle I like to consider (versatility on multiple surfaces) for runners making such a move doesn’t appear very promising either, having finished 3rd in a field of 5 in his only synthetic start.  If he makes a good post parade impression I may be enticed, but for now I’m passing.

Everything trainer Todd Pletcher touches has turned to gold lately, so it seems a no brainer that THREE DAY RUSH has to be considered a player in this race at 4/1 second choice on the morning line.  That being said, he was third behind two of today’s rivals last out in the Whirlaway.  Two races back he was able to wire a field (like all other Pletcher runners, it seems) at the Allowance level at Gulstream Park.  I expect this horse to take serious play at the windows, and he should be a factor, but once again I’ll side against conventional wisdom as I’m a bit worried that the colt’s only wins have come sprinting at the 6 furlong distance.

Which brings me to PEPPI KNOWS, a solid 10/1 choice on the morning line.  I don’t expect to get odds that favorable come post time, but hopefully he’s still a decent price on the board.  The son of Stephen Got Even might be due to bounce back to earth, but note that his effort 2 back was a game 2nd to the once highly heralded Buddy’s Saint.   His running lines suggest he’s a horse that knows how to win, and that it will take a pretty good horse to beat him.  I’m going to make him my top choice here.

Another runner I think has a big chance here at very favorable odds is AFLEET AGAIN.  I almost had to do a double take when I saw the 20/1.  If you like PEPPI KNOWS at all at 10/1, don’t you have to like AFLEET AGAIN at double those odds?  The son of Afleet Alex has been working well for this effort, and if he and jockey Kendrick Carmouche can get some mojo working this weekend, they just might have a shot at the winner’s circle.

Then of course there’s my old pal Rick Dutrow and his entry, YAWANNA TWIST.  The son of Yonaguska has won back to back races to start his career sprinting at Aqueduct.  You know better than to discount a Dutrow horse running in New York…don’t you?

Selections:

• #6 Peppi Knows (10/1)
• # 9 Afleet Again (20/1)
• # 1 Three Day Rush (4/1)

I’ll add in YAWANNA TWIST and AWESOME ACT to the exotic plays.  Ditto for TURF MELODY since he is a Graham Motion horse (I always play Graham’s horses – just a personal preference since he’s my favorite horsemen).

The Sham (Grade 3) – Santa Anita- 1 1/8 miles

Remember all that talk of Spring being upon us at the top of this post?  Well, the beautiful weather that typically personifies Southern California this time of year might be only a figment of our imaginations this weekend, with heavy rains anticipated and a possible second rescheduling of Saturday’s Sham Stakes.  For now, we’ll proceed along the path of “ignorance being bliss” as those of us about to break the 50 degree threshold on the thermometer for the first time this decade gallivant around unaware (blissfully, again) of the fact our friends on the opposite coast may be being dumped on this weekend.

The Sham looks like a relatively evenly matched race on paper, but the two horses most will be anxious to see are KETTLE RIVER and THE PROGRAM.   That being said, I think there are some interesting “shots” worth taking a look at here, including SETSUKO and OUTLAW MAN.

We’ll start with the obvious.  KETTLE RIVER comes out of back to back victories over maidens and allowance foes.  The son of Congaree gives trainer Eoin Harty (of Colonel John fame) a runner that at least some folks I know are buzzing about as a possible Derby horse.  We’ll see if he’s got what it takes this weekend in his first graded stakes try.  Like so many of his generation, he’s lightly raced and still have plenty of room for improvement.  His recent workouts might not be off-the-charts, but if you go back to January 25th at Hollywood, he seems to have shown a little “something, something.”  I respect this guys chances in here enough to make him my top overall pick.

THE PROGRAM is more front running son of Harlan’s Holiday heading out for the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn.  If they let him get loose on the lead he could give them fits, but it’s worth noting he was no match for KETTLE RIVER following a wide trip two races back.  More forgiving handicappers will point to the 4th place finish behind Lookin at Lucky (beaten 1 1/2 lengths) last December.  He’s a player in this race for sure, but seems to me the type that needs to have a few breaks go his way (such as the head bob at the wire in his victory last out over Indian Firewater), and that might be playing with fire this time around.

If you’re looking for a price on the board, what about OUTLAW MAN?  Bettors tend to shy away from horses who take 4 tries to break their maiden and then jump up into the stakes level, but you know that with jockey Garett Gomez aboard, this son of Forest Wildcat will be taking at least some play at the windows.  I like that he’s improving, and that his recent workouts look very impressive (4 furlongs in :46 and change on 3/1, for example).  Also note who he faced in his debut; Winslow Homer.  Remember that guy?  Had he not been hurt, he might be a top contender for the Derby at this point in time.  Suffice to say there are reasons to expect a game performance from this colt.  I don’t think he’s outmatched at all against this field.

SETSUKO is a horse I admittedly knew nothing about until some folks at TVG (namely Matt Carothers) and at the DRF (Brad Free) started talking about him over a month ago.  He seems like a hard trying son of Pleasantly Perfect that, for whatever reason, just hasn’t been able to put it all together and turn in consistent winning races.  He is “right there” though in all of his tries (hence the “hard trying” reference).  I’m not sure why the horse is named Setsuko, as that is a name typically reserved for females in Japanese, but this colt does have two manly positives working in his favor; jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer Richard Mandella. Consider him an underneath play on your exotics.

NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR could also be a sneaky play in here.  The son of Lido Palace picks up the services of Mike Smith in the irons, thanks at least in part to Bejarano being aboard SETSUKO.  He’s been training his tail off and trainer Mike Machowsky is hitting at a whopping 38% for the year with a limited sample of runners.  Don’t leave this guy off your tickets would be my advice.

Selections:

• #6 Kettle River
• #2 The Program
• #3 Outlaw Man

I’ll also be adding in SETSUKO and NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR underneath to my exotic plays.

Well, that’ll just about do it for our weekend Derby prep races.  Best of luck to all – and be sure to let us know your thoughts on the weekend racing action.