TVG Breeders' Cup Mile Selections

[#1]

Eleven contenders are set to line up for a surprisingly deep field in the Grade 1 TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile on Saturday at Santa Anita.  The field includes last year’s champion filly Goldikova, who will be taking on the boys again in her quest for repeat glory.

The field sets up as follows:

1. Court Vision (12/1)
2. Whatsthescript (15/1)
3. Cowboy Cal (6/1)
4. Delegator (3/1)
5. Karelian (20/1)
6. Courageous Cat (20/1)
7. Ferneley (20/1)
8. Zacinto (8/1)
9. Gladiatorus (20/1)
10.  Justenuffhumor (10/1)
11.  Goldikova (8/5*)

Can Goldikova match the legacy of Miesque and make it back-to-back victories over the boys in the TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile?

COURT VISION – his wins may be few and far between lately, but 12/1 feels like a steal on this guy.  The son of Gulch was once a contender for the 2008 Kentucky Derby, but has become one of the better  turf runners in the U.S. since that point in time.  He’s had trouble facing off against Presious Passion, Gio Ponti, and Einstein this year, but will thankfully avoid all three in this race.  On the other hand, he now runs into the likes of GOLDIKOVA and DELEGATOR.  Rick Dutrow took over training COURT VISION and promptly helped him return to the winner’s circle last out in the Shadwell Turf Mile over soft footing at Keeneland.  On his best stuff, he can certainly be a factor here, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dutrow have him ready to run a big one.  I like that he was a bit closer up in the Shadwell Turf Mile, as that may have helped him out over the late closing style that Dominguez and Mott employed in his previous 2009 starts.  This is a solid horse, although contention runs deep in this race.

WHATSTHESCRIPT finished 3rd in this race last year behind GOLDIKOVA and KIP DEVILLE.  To be honest, I liked his form coming into this event last year much better than what we’ve seen this year. You have to to back to the 2008 Del Mar mile to find his last victory, and while he can definitely threaten for a minor award, a win would seem to be just a bit of a stretch to predict here.  This is clearly his best distance, and he has run well over the Santa Anita turf. 

COWBOY CAL is admittedly one of my favorite horses in training.  There’s just something about him that I love.  The son of Giant’s Causeway will likely attempt to wire the field once again – something that’s been difficult to do at this level for him.  In recent races, JUSTENUFFHUMOR has seemingly had his number, but he has finished ahead of COURT VISION and WHATSTHESCRIPT.  Could this be the day he hangs on for victory?  It’s interesting to note that GOLDIKOVA seemingly got torched a bit by a very fast pace in the Prix de la Foret last out at Longchamp.  I don’t think COWBOY CAL will be going as fast here, but it shows that it’s not entirely impossible to envision him exiting victorious.  He’ll be my rooting interest in this race.  I haven’t definitively made up my mind yet how much I’ll support him with my wallet.

DELEGATOR is the first in a series of very live foreign invaders looking to take the TVG Mile.  Yet again, we’re dealing with a Godolphin runner that has (who else?) Dettori aboard.  The 3-year-old son of Dansili is a Group 2 winner at Goodwood, having prevailed in the Celebration Mile over today’s rival ZACINTO.  The names of horses he’s faced in recent races reads like a who’s who in terms of 2009 Breeders’ Cup contenders from Europe, including Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman (not to mention Sea the Stars).  A classy horse you’ve got to respect in this spot.

KARELIAN is one of the few horses in this field that I have trouble making a case for in terms of being a potential win candidate.  He’s a fine gelding, for sure, and seems to be running better now in his old age (7-years-old) than he did earlier in his career.  It’s just that he’ll be stepping up a bit in terms of class and would need the race of his life here to prevail.  Just about any of these guys could hit the board somewhere, but I wouldn’t recommend him as a win play.  Of course, if you do like him, then 20/1 is certainly worth a shot.

COURAGEOUS CAT – every time I type this horse’s name, I travel back to my childhood and the Saturday morning cartoon shorts of “Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse.”  Almost nobody seems to remember that, but it seems this guy’s connections do.  On paper the son of Storm Cat might not stand out, but keep in mind this is a relatively lightly raced 3-year-old who could be eligible to move forwarda bit. He’s got decent enough recent form, having won 3 of his last 4, but like others would probably need to run a career defining race here to prevail. 

FERNELEY managed to defeat Allicansayis Wow and Lethal Heat two races back in the Del Mar Mile, and then finished a game 2nd to Ventura in the Woodbine Mile.  That’s pretty good recent company to have kept.  The 5-year-old son of Ishiguru has fired fresh before back in April at Golden Gate, and would need a similar effort to have a shot here.  To that end, his workout tab is dotted with bullets lately.  Seems like an outsider at first glance but could be primed for a solid performance.

ZACINTO is a horse who might get overlooked a bit at the windows.  It’s hard to imagine that considering how the 3-year-old son of Dansili has classed up when facing Rip Van Winkle and DELEGATOR this year.  The morning line odds of 8/1 seem like a gift given this guy’s capability.  If you like DELEGATOR, don’t you have to like this guy as well?  I just question why the other is 3/1 and this guy is 8/1?  Seems a bit odd if you ask me, especially since ZACINTO was 3 1/4 lengths ahead of DELEGATOR at the wire in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) at Royal Ascot on September 25.  A major player in this race.

GLADIATORUS exits a victory in the Group 1 Premio Vittorio di Capua in Italy – a race I could tell you next to nothing about.  The son of Silic has faced off against GOLDIKOVA in the past, and did not turn in one of his more memorable performances (beaten by 20 1/2 lengths).  On the plus side, he has won 8 of 13 lifetime starts going 8 furlongs, and when he does run “his race”, he seems quite capable.  I just tend to prefer some of the other shippers a bit more.  He tends to lead early, according to his running lines, which suggests he may be a pace factor along with COWBOY CAL and perhaps COURAGEOUS CAT and/or KARELIAN.

JUSTENUFFHUMOR did not fire over the soft footing at Keeneland in the Shadwell Turf Mile last out, but prior to that flop had been 6 for his previous 6.  I think you draw a line through that last race and try to focus on his other races.  The son of Distorted Humor should be closing into the pace as they near the stretch, and if he can return to the form he showed in the Bernard Baruch Handicap (Grade 2), he can definitely factor here.  My main concern is that a mile just doesn’t seem on paper to be his best distance.  We shall see.

GODIKOVA - what can you say about one of the ladies who helped make the 2008/2009 seasons such a story book time for fillies and mares?  Far before the world went “Rachel crazy”, we had GOLDIKOVA defeating colts in the 2008 BC Mile.  Some folks might be ready to jump ship given her recent unexpected defeat in the Prix de la Foret (Group 1) at Longchamp last out, but I’m going to be forgiving here and assume that Goldi is still the horse to beat in this race.  She’s arguably the top miler in the world, and may have simply been too close to a hot pace last out in a race that she didn’t necessarily “need” to be ready here.  Trainer Freedie Head knows a thing or two about fillies in this race, having rode Miesque to victories in the 1988 and 1989 runnings of the BC Mile. She’s still the horse to beat, although this year seems to set up a bit more difficult than the 2008 race did – even with the presence of Kip Deville last year.

I’ll use GOLDIKOVA as top selection here.  ZACINTO and DELEGATOR would seem to be the top threats in my opinion, although I’m not going to count COWBOY CAL or COURT VISION out of this fight either.  A resurgent JUSTENUFFHUMOR looking to make amends makes this race much more competitive than folks probably thought prior to glancing at the past performances.  This seems like a great race to pick the horse(s) that you like the most and take a shot.  It should be a good one.

Selections:

• #11 Goldikova (8/5*)
• #8 Zacinto (8/1)
• #4 Delegator (3/1)